Match Simulator

Select Wrestlers

Wrestler 1 Choose a wrestler...ShodaiUraKotozakuraDaieishoOhoAonishikiMeiseiMitakeumiOnosatoWakamotoharuHiradoumiTakayasuTobizaruHoshoryuAsanoyamaWakatakakageKirishimaTakanoshoTamawashiAbiRyudenOshomaNishikigi

Wrestler 2 Choose a wrestler...ShodaiUraKotozakuraDaieishoOhoAonishikiMeiseiMitakeumiOnosatoWakamotoharuHiradoumiTakayasuTobizaruHoshoryuAsanoyamaWakatakakageKirishimaTakanoshoTamawashiAbiRyudenOshomaNishikigi

Match Prediction

Skill: ±

Skill: ±

Select two wrestlers and click "Simulate Match" to see the prediction.

Interpretation

These probabilities represent the likelihood of each wrestler winning based on their current TrueSkill ratings and the uncertainty in those ratings. The TrueSkill algorithm accounts for both the estimated skill level (μ) and the confidence in that estimate (σ) to provide a more nuanced prediction than simple point estimates.

How it works

The simulator uses the TrueSkill algorithm to calculate win probabilities between two wrestlers. TrueSkill represents each wrestler’s skill as a probability distribution with: - μ (mu): The estimated skill rating - σ (sigma): The uncertainty in that rating

When two wrestlers compete, we calculate the probability that one wrestler’s skill is higher than the other’s, accounting for the uncertainty in both ratings.

Technical Details: The win probability is calculated using the normal distribution. For wrestlers with ratings μ₁,σ₁ and μ₂,σ₂, the probability that wrestler 1 wins is: P(μ₁ > μ₂) = Φ((μ₁ - μ₂) / √(σ₁² + σ₂²)) where Φ is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution.